Trump's Biggest Political Test? How US Midterm Elections Could Limit His Powers
The United States is voting in midterm elections on November 3. The outcome will determine the balance of power in the US Congress, state governorships and thousands of local offices.
Midterm elections are congressional elections held halfway through a US president's four-year term. They do not decide the president's position, but they can significantly affect the extent of his political power.
The results are expected on November 4, after counting begins once voting concludes.
What Are Midterm Elections?
Midterm elections take place halfway through a president's four-year tenure. Unlike presidential elections, they do not involve voting for the president or vice president. Instead, voters elect members of both chambers of Congress, along with key representatives in several states.
This time, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for election. Gubernatorial elections are also scheduled in 39 states.
The newly elected 120th Congress is scheduled to begin its work in January 2027.
Trump's Powers Could Be Limited
The US president's powers come from the Constitution and are not determined solely by which party controls Congress.
If Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives, the Senate or both, Trump's ability to push his legislative agenda could be restricted. However, such a setback would not strip him of his presidential powers.
Trump would still be able to issue executive orders, veto bills passed by Congress and make decisions on foreign policy and military operations.
How Could the Midterm Results Affect Trump?
1. Difficulty passing laws and tax cuts
If Republicans lose their majority, Trump could find it difficult to get his preferred legislation, including tax-cut measures and stricter immigration bills, passed by Congress. He may not have enough votes to secure approval.
2. Congressional investigations into his administration
Democrats could take control of key congressional committees and initiate investigations into the Trump administration's functioning, decisions and policies. They could also issue subpoenas as part of these inquiries.
3. Disputes over government spending
The House of Representatives plays a key role in approving federal spending and budget legislation. A Democratic-controlled House could lead to increased disagreements between Trump and opposition lawmakers over government expenditure, potentially triggering a shutdown of federal operations.
4. Hurdles in Trump's appointments
If Democrats gain control of the Senate, confirming Trump's nominees for judicial positions, Cabinet posts and other senior government roles could become more difficult.
What Other Political Challenges Could Trump Face?
After the midterm elections, American politics will increasingly turn towards the 2028 presidential race. This could create two additional challenges for Trump.
Could Trump Lose His Grip on the Republican Party?
Trump is serving his second presidential term and, under the current constitutional limit, cannot be elected to a third term.
As his presidency moves towards its conclusion, he could face the risk of becoming a 'lame-duck' president, with his influence over the Republican Party gradually weakening.
Some Republican leaders who aspire to become presidential candidates in 2028 may begin distancing themselves from Trump. They could stop following his political direction or defending his decisions and instead build independent political identities.
Scrutiny of the Trump Family's Crypto Business
Another issue that could attract attention is the cryptocurrency business linked to the Trump family, World Liberty Financial, which has launched a stablecoin called USD1.
According to reports, in May 2025, Abu Dhabi-based investment firm MGX invested $2 billion in cryptocurrency exchange Binance. The USD1 stablecoin was used in the transaction.
The assets backing USD1 could generate interest income, potentially earning the Trump family around $80 million, according to the claims cited in the report.
There have also been allegations that UAE-based One Investment acquired a significant stake in World Liberty Financial before Trump assumed the presidency.
The controversy intensified after Binance founder Changpeng Zhao faced money-laundering charges and served a prison sentence. Trump later granted him a pardon in October 2025, triggering allegations that the decision could have involved personal interests.
These issues could face greater scrutiny if Democrats gain control of congressional committees.
How Could Trump Respond to an Electoral Setback?
Trump has repeatedly questioned the integrity of US elections since losing the 2020 presidential race to Joe Biden. The allegations contributed to an atmosphere of political tension, culminating in the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol by thousands of Trump supporters.
At a Republican Party convention in September, Trump reportedly told his allies to “cheat like they do”. Some of his advisers have also suggested declaring an emergency over concerns about alleged election fraud.
Such a move could increase the involvement of federal agencies in the election process. However, reports suggest Trump rejected the proposal, as declaring an emergency would not automatically give the president control over the electoral process.
The Trump administration could also face accusations of pressuring election officials under the pretext of preventing fraud, including attempts to influence, reject or delay election results. Trump faced similar allegations after losing the 2020 presidential election.
The report also points to federal law enforcement activity involving election records. It states that FBI agents raided an election office in Georgia's Fulton County in January 2020 and seized hundreds of election-related records. The date and sequence of this incident should be verified before publication.
In addition, around 1,000 federal election monitors have reportedly been deployed to oversee the election process. This is nearly double the 590 officials deployed during the 2024 presidential election.
The deployment of additional troops on voting day, citing security concerns, is also being raised as a possibility. Such a move could create an atmosphere of fear among voters.
Ultimately, the midterm results will not determine whether Trump remains president, but they could reshape the balance of power in Washington, affect his legislative agenda and influence the political direction of the Republican Party ahead of the 2028 presidential election. ALSO READ: What might Trump have planned for Iran following the midterm election?
