Why exit polls of top notch channels failed to get the pulse of Bihar?

Author Avichal Sharma
Compared to the early 20's and late 90's Media's accuracy in predicting the winner has surged drastically. Probably From 2013 to 2020, election results were analogous to the exit polls. Only in Bihar, the news channels missed the bus that too twice.
Even the Top notch psephologist of Axis my India Pradeep Gupta failed to predict the mood of voters. Remind you he was spot on in LS polls 2019, Haryana & Delhi polls. The moment he signaled the majority to MGB, many saw it as a game over for NDA. On the 7th Media, persons were mentally prepared to heap praises on Tejaswi Yadav for the 10th. But the story was altogether different on the deciding day.
However, his Exit poll of by-polls proved to be correct in the end. From Jan ki Baat to C voter, to axis my India to Chanakya The reason surveys failed to get the pulse in is due to the presence of half a dozen prominent parties and 3 alliance. However, this should be considered a rare failure.
 
There were a plethora of parties battling it out in Bihar BJP,JDU,VIP,HAM in and RJD,Congress Left in Grand Alliance. A third alliance was also formed in Bihar. In a dual party state, it is easy to predict the anti-incumbency. While in the state of Bihar it was just a voter's fatigue which was showcased as anti-incumbency.
 
The second reason being LJP's flip flop forced media persons to underestimate the double engine alliance. Voters were confused whether LJP was in NDA or not so was the Media. 
 
Third, being the sample size taken by the top-notch channels was more miffed with NDA and a major chunk of it was the traditional voters of Bihar.

(The views and opinions expressed in the attached post solely belong to the author and is not plagiarized to the best of our knowledge.)
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